← CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
decks
2
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.2%
avg ELO +4.4 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1161
· median 1161
· range 1121–1201
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1164
Q3 1374
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Genbu | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
